Lay Value Calculator

Step 1 of 5

Where is the race?

Select the racecourse and enter the field size. Historical favourite win rates auto-fill your edge threshold.

Racecourse

Type to search — UK & Ireland flat, AW and jumps

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Fav win %

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Lay win %

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Base edge req.

Race Details

Number of Runners

Track Fav Win Rate %

Edge Formula

Lay Edge % = 100 − (True Win % × Lay Odds) Required Edge = Base (course) + Field adj − Form bonus − J/T bonus − Market spread

The required edge falls when form supports the lay, connections are weak, or rivals are tightly priced. It rises in small fields or when the favourite looks solid.

Step 2 of 5

The Favourite

Enter the lay odds, paste the form card, and rate the jockey & trainer. Analysis runs in Step 4.

Odds

Favourite Lay Odds (decimal, e.g. 3.20 — max 6.0)

Form Card

Paste race card (Sporting Life / Timeform / Racing Post)

Connections

Jockey & Trainer

Jockey name

Trainer name

Jockey5

Solid professional, no strong signals

Trainer5

Average yard, no strong signals

Step 3 of 5

The Rivals

Optional — add the 2nd and 3rd favourites. Even odds alone improve the analysis.

2nd & 3rd Favourites

2nd Favourite Odds (decimal)

Form Card (optional)

Jockey & Trainer

Jockey

Trainer

Jockey5

Solid professional, no strong signals

Trainer5

Average yard, no strong signals

3rd Favourite Odds (decimal)

Form Card (optional)

Jockey & Trainer

Jockey

Trainer

Jockey5

Solid professional, no strong signals

Trainer5

Average yard, no strong signals

Step 4 of 5

Analyse

All your data is combined below. Review the form assessment, confirm your true win estimate, then proceed to the verdict.

What You've Entered

Course—

Runners—

Fav Lay Odds—

2nd Fav Odds—

3rd Fav Odds—

Form card—

Fav jockey / trainer—

Favourite Form Assessment

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Est. true win %

Race Dynamic

1st Fav

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True win %

2nd Fav

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True win %

3rd Fav

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True win %

True Win % — Confirm or Adjust

The form engine has estimated a true win probability below. You can accept it or override it before calculating.

True Win % (your final estimate)

Step 5 of 5

The Verdict

Confirm the final inputs and calculate.

Final Inputs

Lay Odds

True Win %

2nd Fav Odds

3rd Fav Odds

Live Edge —

Lay Edge

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Required Edge

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Market Implied

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Lay Odds

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Edge Breakdown